Analyzing and Modeling Spatiotemporal Urban Growth Using Spatial Metrics: A Case of Jimma City

Abstract

A rapid increase in the world’s population over the last century has triggered the transformation of the earth surface, especially in urban areas, where more than half of the global populations live. Ethiopia is no exception and a high population growth rate, coupled with economic development over the last three decades, has transformed the Jimma city into a hot spot for massive urban growth Although urbanization presents several opportunities, the environmental and social problems cannot be underestimated. Therefore, the need to estimate the rate and extent of land use/land cover changes in the area and the main drivers of these changes is imperative.data used landsat 5,7 and 8.GIS, RS, IDRIS SELVA, QGIS, Fragstats and ENVI techniques provide effective tools in studying and analysis land-use/land-cover change over space and time. A supervised and support vector machine algorithm (SVMAs) was used for multi_temporal land satellite classification. The change detection of multiple Landsat images was conducted to map and analyzed the extent and rate of land use/land cover change in the Jimma city between 1994 and 2024. Subsequently, the urban growth extent of the area was forecasted for the year 2034, on the land change modeler using Multi- Layer Perceptron neural network, with combination of markov chain method, growth direction urban area and finally the relationship between population growth and urban built-up area expansion were analyzed using regression analysis. Overall, the results show there was the extensive LULC changes in Jimma city over the study Period (30 years). Grass land was dominant class at the beginning of the study period and until this research conducted but declined with the continuous increase of urban land area. It can be seen that the rate of annual urban expansion greater by far, from the rest land use classes. The coverage of grass land was 31.72% of the total area at the beginning of the study timeframe. In the following 30 years, it dramatically dropped to about 11.35%. By contrast, the proportion of urban class was 4.63% in 1994, this figure rose to just over 33.15% in 2024, Temporally, the rate of urban built-up land expansion was comparatively low in the first ten years between 1994 and 2004, which showed nearly 2.37% increase, then it peaked about 33.15% of the total area in the last year. On the other hand, forest class showed a remarkable increase in spatial cover between 1994 –2004 has also contributed to the increase of its share of the study area from 8.57–15.27% in the first and last years of the study period, respectively. While the areal share of the barren land decreased in the first 20 years during the study timeframe however it is increased dramatically in the last 10 years. In the next coming 10 years it will be expected that urban built-up land area is increased from 15.94% to 34.84% of the total area coverage according to prediction at 2034. As the study reveals also relationship between population growth and urban built-up area expansion were positive correlation. The success of this research is generating a future urban land-use map for 2034 together with the other significant findings, demonstrates the usefulness of spatial models as tools for sustainable city planning and environmental management, especially for urban planners in developing countries like Ethiopia.