Spatiotemporal Analysis and Scenario-Based Modeling of Urban Growth in Adama Town

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in developing countries presents significant challenges for city planners, necessitating the adoption of scientific tools and methodologies for effective policy-making. This study focuses on Adama City, one of Ethiopia's rapidly growing urban centers, and aims to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban land use and land cover changes from 1990 to 2020. The primary objective is to assess urban spatial growth using the CA-SLEUTH model, which is favoured for its structured approach, simplicity, and evaluative capabilities, alongside GIS-based machine learning algorithms. The rationale for this study stems from the need for reliable forecasting models to inform urban planning decisions in the face of unchecked urban expansion, which can lead to social, economic, and environmental challenges. It is hypothesized that the application of the CA-SLEUTH model will yield accurate predictions of urban growth patterns under different scenarios, thereby facilitating better planning and management strategies. The methodology involves a combination of remote sensing techniques and GIS to derive land cover data for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, followed by the application of the CA-SLEUTH model to simulate future urban growth. Validation of the urban land use and land cover maps demonstrated high accuracy levels of 91.67% for 1990, 85.71% for 2000, 91.67% for 2010, and 83.3% for 2020.Predictions for urban spatial growth scenarios from 2024 to 2060 highlighted significant projected growth areas: 53.84 km² (0% increase) for the restricted scenario, 78.2 km² (45.2% increase) for the business-as-usual scenario, and 101 km² (29.1% increase) for the aggravated scenario. These projections underscore the varying impacts of different urban development policies on future growth trajectories. Based on these findings, the study recommends implementing sustainable urban planning strategies that align urban growth with planned scenarios. Such strategies are essential for mitigating potential urban challenges, such as infrastructure strain, environmental degradation, and social inequality, thereby fostering a more sustainable urban future for Adama City.