Spatio-Temporal Analysis And Modeling Of Landuse Land Cover Change: The Case Of Bishoftu Town

Abstract

Land Use Land Cover Data Is Highly Acknowledged For Land Resources Management. The Total Areal Change Due To Massive Migration From Rural To Urban Has Legitimated Various Land Deforming Issues For The Land Managers And Planners (I.E. Unplanned Growth, Poor Environment).Image Classification Was Using Support Vector Machine Algorism And The Simulation Of Built-Up Area Based On The Past Trend Using Land Change Modeler. Subsequently, The Urban Growth Extent Of The Area Was Forecasted For The Years 2050 On The Land Change Modeler Using The Markov Chain Method, Together With Drivers Representing Proximity, Biophysical, And Socioeconomic Variables And Finally The Relationship Between Population Growth And Peredicted LULC Were Analyzed.Accordingly, The Result Showed That, During The Entire Study Period (2000 2021), Built-Up Area Was Increased By 38.08% With Its Total Area Coverage 7235.34 Ha And Cropland Also Little Increased By 4.63% (880.01 Ha). However, Water Bodies ,Bare Soil, Forest Land And Grassland Were Declined By 0.35 % And 23.14 %,11.87 % And 7.36 % With A Total Coverage Area Of 67.27, 4396.33, 2254.71and 1397.04 Hectares Respectively .More Over,The Result Showed That, The Overall Accuracy Of The Land Use And Land Cover Change Maps During The The Periods(2000 2021) Was 86.59 %, Which Is Greater Than An Acceptable Standard (85%). The Study Has Also Resulted, MARKOV Chain Modeling Techniques Was Employed For Land Use And Land Cover Prediction By 2050. Accordingly, Built-Up Area Has Shown Increased By 2348 Ha (12.36%) But, Nun Built Up Area Has Decreased With Values 2000.97ha,368.74ha And 79.31 Ha For Bare Soil, Grassland And Crop Land For The Period (2021-2050) Respectively The Avareage Annual Rate Of Urban Area Expansion Of The Town For The Entire Periods Was 0.17%. Whereas The Average Annual Land Consumption Rate Of The Town Was 0.4%. The Study Found That, The Land Use And Land Cover Of The Town Has Resulted Anegative And Positive Effects On The Built-Up Area. Generally, The Study Was Revealed That, An Integrated Geospatial Tool Is Vital For Evaluating Urban Growth Effects On The Built-Up Area. Therefore, The Town Administrative Of Bishoftu Should Utilize An Integrated Geospatial Tool To Overcome The Negative Impacts Of Urban Land Use And Land Cover In The Built Environment