Medium Term Load Forecasting and Transmission Line Expansion Planning (Case Study: Gefersa to Fiche Transmission Line)

Abstract

A sustainable supply of electric power is a prerequisite to foster all sorts of development in any country. Development of electricity infrastructure is undoubtedly a capital-intensive project that needs a careful planning, especially when future expansion of Generation and Transmission Line is taken into consideration. In this thesis load forecasting of Gefersa Fiche 66kv transmission line from 2023-2027 was carried out using ANN and the forecasted load was 31.90MW.Then, we have used PSS/E software for network modeling and load flow analysis. There are many cost optimization methods, but, Particle Swarm Optimization, or PSO for short, has been used because it has fewer parameters to adjust, it is easy to implement and program, also it gets the best solution via particle’s interaction. PSO is based on the analogy of bird and fish swarms that school together to achieve efficient search through memory and feedback systems. The existing Gefersa-Fiche 66kv transmission line supply carries a maximum active power of 21.6MW but, the existing required power in Fiche was 28.09MW. Therefore this transmission line supply didn’t satisfy the demand in that area. Then supplying 230kv transmission line from Gerbe Guracha substation to Fiche substation has been chosen considering the existing demand, future demands and cost optimization out of the three options (Gefersa to Fiche 132kv, Gerbe-Guracha to Fiche 230kv and Chancho to Fiche 132kv) transmission lines to balance demand and supply in Fiche and surrounding areas.