Assessing The Impact of Land Use Land cover change on Land surface Temperature Using Geospatial tools: a Case Study of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study investigates the geographical and temporal dynamics of vegetation cover and its influence on LST in Addis Ababa over a 21-year period (2003–2024), utilizing multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery and geospatial analysis techniques. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used in assessing shifts in vegetation cover quantitatively and their spatial distribution across the rapidly urbanizing city. Results demonstrate a significant and sustained decline in vegetation, particularly in urban expansion zones, with profound implications for the warm climate of the city and ecological sustainability. A highly significant inverse Connection among NDVI and LST was observed throughout the study period, utilizing the (R²) coefficient of determination values of 0.9551 in 2003, 0.9012 in 2013, and 0.9557 in 2024, indicating that vegetation consistently exerted a strong moderating effect on surface temperature variations despite fluctuations possibly linked to land use changes. Vegetation density mitigates surface temperatures through shading, reduced solar radiation absorption, and enhanced evapotranspiration, thereby alleviating urban heat island effects. Furthermore, the study reveals differential impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) categories—such as urban settlements, farmland, and bare land—on LST patterns, with impervious and non vegetated surfaces exhibiting notably higher temperatures. These outcomes demonstrate how urgently integrated, sustainable urban planning strategies that prioritize the conservation and expansion of green spaces, implementation of green infrastructure, and reforestation initiatives to enhance climate resilience. This research provides useful data for environmental managers, urban planners, and legislators seeking to strike a balance rapid urban development with ecological sustainability amid ongoing climate change challenges.