Analysis of urban expansion and Modeling of Land use/Land cover Changes in Adama City Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Abstract

Adama City Has Undergone Radical Changes In Its Physical Form, Not Only In Its Vast Territorial Expansion, But Also Through Internal Physical Transformations Over The Last Decades. Therefore, Understanding And Quantifying The Spatiotemporal Dynamics Of Urban Land Use And Land Cover Changes And Its Driving Factors Is Essential To Put Forward The Right Policies And Monitoringmechanisms On Urban Growth For Decision Making. Thus, The Objective Of This Study Was To Analyze Land Use And Land Cover Changes That Have Been Taken Place Over 37 Years, To Predict And Analyze The Future Urban Growth Of Adama City By Applying Geospatial And Land Use Change Modeling Tools. In Order To Achieve This, Satellite Data Of Landsat 1973,2000 And 2010 Have Been Obtained And Preprocessed Using Arcgis 10, Erdass 9.2 And Idrisi 32.A Supervised Classification Method Has Been Applied To Prepare The Base Maps With Six Land Cover Classes Has Been Used To Generate Land Use And Land Cover Maps. The Generated Land Cover Maps Have Been Cross Tabulated For Quantifying Land Use And Land Cover Changes, To Examine Land Use Transitions Between Land Cover Classes, To Identify Gain And Losses Of Built Up Areas In Relation To Other Land Cover Classes And To Asses Spatial Trend Of Built Up Areas. Finally, Markov Chain Analysis And CA-Markov Have Been Run To Model Land Use And Land Cover Changes In Adama Area And To Predict Future Urban Land Use Changes. This Model Was Checked By Kappa Statistics Values And Also By Implementing Other Model Validation Techniques. Generally, The Results Of This Study Have Shown That There Was An Increased Expansion Of Built Up Areas In The Last 37 Years From 2%In 1973, 10% In 2000, 23% In2010 And 60.27% In Predicted Of 2040 After 30 Years.