Modeling Spatial And Temporal Urban Growth Patterns And Trends By Using Geospatial Technologies, The Case Of Ambo Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Abstract

Understanding And Quantifying The Spatiotemporal Dynamics Of Urban Land Use And Land Cover Changes And Its Driving Factors Over Space And Time Is Essential To Put Forward The Right Policies And Monitoring Mechanisms On Urban Growth For Decision Making. Thus, The Objective Of This Study Was To Analyze The Spatio-Temporal Dynamics Of Urban Areas In Ambo Town By Applying Geospatial And Land-Use Change Modeler Tools. The Change Detection Of Multiple Landsat Images Was Conducted To Map And Analyzed The Extent And Rate Of Land Use/Land Cover Change In The Ambo Town Between 1990 And 2021. Image Classification Was Using Support Vector Machine Algorism And The Simulation Of Built-Up Area Based On The Past Trend Using Land Change Modeler. Subsequently, The Urban Growth Extent Of The Area Was Forecasted For The Years 2030, 2040, And 2050 On The Land Change Modeler Using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network, With The Combination Of Markov Chain Method, Together With Drivers Representing Proximity, Biophysical, And Socioeconomic Variables And Finally The Relationship Between Population Growth And Urban Built-Up Area Expansion Were Analyzed Using Regression Analysis. Overall, The Results Show There Were Extensive LULC Changes In Ambo Town Over The Study Period (31years). Agriculture Land And Grassland Were Dominant Classes At The Beginning But Declined With The Continuous Increase Of Urban Land Area. The Coverage Of Grassland And Agricultural Land Was 41.45% And 33.94% Of The Total Area At The Beginning Of The Study Timeframe Respectively. After 31 Years, Grassland And Forest Area Dramatically Dropped To About 14.58% And 8.63% Respectively. By Contrast, The Proportion Of The Urban Class Was 2.93% In 1990, This Figure Rose To Just Over 16.65% In 2021. Agriculture Decreases By Negative Net Change59.31% In The Last Period. LULC Classes That Contribute More Net Change In A Built-Up Area For Three Decades (1990-2021) Were Grassland That Contributes (765Ha), Agriculture Land (612Ha), Forest Area (34 Ha), Barren Land (9Ha) And Water Body Contribute (6.4Ha). In The Next Coming 30 Years, It Will Be Expected That Urban Built-Up Land Area Is Increased From 19.97% To 26.90%,33.27%, And 38.42% Of The Total Area Coverage According To Prediction At 2030,2040 And 2050 Respectively. As The Study Reveals Also The Relationship Between Population Growth And Urban Built-Up Area Expansion Was Alsoa Positive Correlation. The Success Of This Research In Generating A Future Urban Land-Use Map For 2030, 2040, And 2050, Together With The Other Significant Findings, Demonstrates The Usefulness Of Spatial Models As Tools For Sustainable City Planning And Environmental Management.