Causal Analysis and Prioritization of Environmental Risk Factors in High-Rise Building Projects Using a Fuzzy DEMATEL Approach in Addis Ababa

Abstract

High-rise building construction projects in rapidly urbanizing centers like Addis Ababa are inherently susceptible to a multitude of environmental risk factors (ERFs), which can adversely impact project objectives and broader environmental sustainability. Current risk management practices often inadequately address the complex interdependencies among these ERFs. This study aimed to conduct a comprehensive causal analysis and prioritization of ERFs affecting high-rise building construction projects in Addis Ababa using the Fuzzy DEMATEL methodology, and to leverage these insights for developing a targeted strategic management framework. Employing a mixed-methods, sequential explanatory design, data were collected through a literature review and two phases of expert consultations. An initial list of ERFs was validated by experts, resulting in 23 key factors. Subsequently, a panel of 13 experts provided pairwise comparison judgments on these ERFs, which were analyzed using Fuzzy DEMATEL. The analysis identified 'Weak enforcement of existing environmental regulations' (ERF22; D-R = 0.22) and 'Adverse Geological Conditions' (ERF9; D-R = 0.71), and 'Earthquake/Seismic Activity' (ERF7; D-R = 0.52) as key dispatcher ERFs. Highly prominent ERFs included 'Land Pollution' (ERF15; D+R = 10.77) and ERF22 (D+R = 10.70), while 'Public Health and Safety Risks' (ERF20; D-R = -0.72) was the most significant receiver. These findings informed a strategic management framework focusing on proactive measures for dispatchers and robust mitigation for receivers, validated by five experts. This research concludes that a systemic, data driven approach is crucial for effective ERF management. Recommendations include strengthening regulatory enforcement, enhancing pre-construction assessments for dispatcher risks, and implementing integrated strategies for prominent receiver ERFs. The developed framework offers a practical tool for stakeholders to improve environmental performance in Addis Ababa's high-rise construction sector.