A Study On Urban Growth And Modeling Using Geospatial Technology: A Case Study Of Sebeta Sub-City

Abstract

This Study Uses Land Use And Land Cover Change (Lulcc) Computed From Landsat, Etm, Oli And Sentinel Datasets Of 2003, 2013 And 2023 Respectively. The Study Aimed To Simulate Future Lulcc Using Landsat Images In The Fastest-Growing Sebeta Sub-City. Supervised Classification And Support Vector Machine Algorithm Was Applied To Estimate The Lulc For Years 2003, 2013 And 2023. These Were Analyzed By Using Arc Gis10.8.1,Erdas Imagine 2015 Qgis 2.18 And Idrisi V.17 To Make Clear Land Use Structure. The Change Detection Of Multiple Landsat Images Was Conducted Between 2003 And 2023. A Simulation Model Were Done By Cellular Automata In Qgis To Model The Future Lulc For2050.The Historical Lulc Change Data Of 2003?�?2013, 2013-2023 And 2003?�?2023 Were Used As A Baseline. Both Transition Rules And Transition Area Matrix For The Period 2003?�?2013, 2013-2023 And 2003?�?2023 Were Produced Quantitatively Using The Markov Chain Model. The Model Was Validated Using Simulated And Observed Lulc 2023 By Using KappaParameters; With The Overall Kappa Index 0.97%; Which Indicates Good Kappa Index Values. The Result Shows That The Proportion Of Built Up Area Was 1.22% In 2003, This Figure Rose ToJust Over 6.92% In 2023, Indicates An Expansion In Built-Up Area Was 270.051 Ha, Resulting In Farmland, Sparse, And Dense Forest Were 13674.8 Ha, 5194.8 Ha, And 462951.04 Ha, Respectively. In 2023 Built Up Was Cover1529.02ha Other Land Use/Land Cover Result Farmland, Dense, And Sparse Forest Indicated That 15447.8ha, 2295.32ha And 2818.06ha OfThe Total Area Coverage2050 Respectively. According To Prediction At 2050, Indicate That These Patterns Of Bare Land Changing Into Built-Up And Farmland Will Continue Over The Next27 Years Due To Urban Expansion And Deforestation. It Is Predicted That The Conversions Of Other Land-Use Types Into Built-Up Areas Will Persist In The South-West, Southern And Western Areas Of The City, As Northern Growth Trend Of The City Is Hampered By The Natural Barriers Of Hilly Ridges Of Subba Forest, Despite The City Has Almost A Compact Settlement Shape. The Output Of The Study Provides Useful Information For Land Use Planners And Decision Makers To Make Better Decisions In Improving Future Land Use Policies And Formulating Management Strategies Within The Framework Of Sustainable Land Use Planning.