Analysis And Modeling The Spatiotemporal Dynamics Of Urban Expansion: A Case Of Dukem Town, Ethiopia

Abstract

Studies Reveal That The Rate Of Urbanization Around The World Is At An All-Time High. By 2030, There Will Be Approximately 5 Billion People Living In Towns And Cities, Which Currently Account For More Than Half Of The World's Population. A Significant Portion Of This Urbanization Will Take Place In Africa And Asia, Resulting In Profound Social, Economic, And Environmental Challenges. The Main Objectives Of This Study Is That Integrating Spatial Metrics, GIS, Remote Sensing And Land Use Land Cover Modeling Tools To Model Spatio Temporal Urban Land Use Changes Of Dukem Town Using Landsat Of 2001,2011,2016 And 2021 Year For The Last Two Decades (2001-2021) And Predict For Future Three Decades (2031, 2041 And 2051). For This Study Using Supervised Classification Method, Support Vectormachine Algorithm. The Overall Accuracy Of Classified Dukem Town Land Use For 2001,2011, 2016 And 2021 Is 89.51%, 96.77%, 93.63% And 90.2% And Respectively Which Is Acceptable. Finding Of This Result Show That Urban Land Use Land Cover Changes Due To Urban Expansion Of Dukem Town Is Highly Increased From 426.174 Ha (4.4%) To 2352.671Ha (24.2%) In Last Two Decades (2001-2021) And For Future Three Decades 2674Ha (27.8%) In 2030, 2822Ha (29.00%) In 2040 And 3259Ha (33.49%) In 2050.Selected Spatial Metrics Indices Show That There Is A Fast Change Of Urban Landscape Patterns In Study Period Of Time. Largest Patch Index (LPI) In Percentage Also Shows A Growing Trend From 3.827% In 2001 To About 34.295% In 2021. This Is A Good Indication That Largest Patch Is Growing More And More In Size Forming A Continuous Urban Agglomeration Towards The Center Of The Town. During The Entire Study Period (2001?�?2021), The Urban Area Expanded Mainly As Edge Expansion It Increased From 54.20% In 2001-2011 To 74.56% In 2016-2021. As Well As Infilling Types Of Growth Was Slightly Increased And Outlying Growth Was Decreased Continuously.CA-ANN Technique Inside The MOLUSCE Plug-In Under QGIS Software Was Used For Modeling Using Factors And Constraints And Validating Kappa Statistic Is Moderate And Acceptable To Predict For Future Urban Expansion. Therefore Analyzing Spatio Temporal Urban Land Use Changes And Predict For Future Is Very Important For Dukem Town And The Town Planners Need To Plan Ahead And Implement Plans Properly To Handle Up With The Rapid And Unparalleled Growth Of The Town In Coming Years.