Modeling Forest Fire Risk And Its Effects On Livelihoods Of Local Community Using Geospatial Technology: The Case Of Arba Gugu Forest In Guna Woreda, Oromia, Ethiopia.

Abstract

Forests Are Highly Significant Ecosystems That Provide Important Environmental, Economic, And Social Benefits. Forest Fires, Which Are Caused By Natural And Human-Induced Factors, However, Are Increasingly Threatening These Resources Both At The Global And Local Levels. The Aim Of The Current Study Was To Assess The Effects Of Forest Fires On The Environment Through The Geospatial Technology Based On Lulc Changes, Forest Fire Hazard Modeling, And The Socio-Economic Impacts On The Livelihood Of The People. Multi-Temporal Landsat Satellite Imagery For The Years 1994, 2004, 2014, And 2024, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (Srtm) Digital Elevation Model (Dem) Data, Nasa Power Climate Data, And National Infrastructure Data Were Utilized In The Study. Supervised Classification Was Applied For Classifying Landsat Imagery, And Post-Classification Comparison (Image Differencing) Method Was Applied For Change Detection Analysis. The Correctness Of The Classification Results Was Verified Using Accuracy Measures Like Overall Accuracy, Producer's Accuracy, User's Accuracy, And The Kappa Coefficient. In Addition To This, Analytic Hierarchy Process (Ahp) Was Employed In The Modeling Of Forest Fire Hazard Zones In The Research Area. The Results Showed That The Forest Cover Reduced By A Whopping 58.92% From 1994 To 2024, While Agricultural Lands Increased By 39.52%, And Settlement Lands Increased By More Than 4100%. Fire Hazard Modeling Demonstrated That Slope Areas, High Temperature, Low Humidity, And Road And Settlement Proximity Were Most Prone To Forest Fires. Socio-Economic Analysis Also Revealed Significant Adverse Impacts Of The Fires On Farm Productivity, Household Income, And Livelihood. Overall, The Study Reveals That Lulc Transitions Are Rising And Forest Cover Is Experiencing Widespread Degradation Owing To Agricultural Expansion Predominantly. The Findings Of The Ahp Justify That Ignition Of Forest Fire In The Research Area Is The Cumulative Result Of Lulc Change, Climate, And Socio-Economic Activities. To Mitigate These Effects, The Study Recommends Increased Protection Of Forests And Capacity And Sensitization Development In Forest Fire Prevention In Communities.