Driving Force of Cost Escalation and its Impact Level on Commercial Building Projects in Adama Town of Ethiopia

Abstract

The Driving Forces Behind Cost Escalation In Adama Town's Commercial Building Projects Need To Be Investigated Comprehensively To Devise Effective Strategies That Adequately Address The Issue. Understanding The Impact Level Of Each Driving Force On Cost Escalation Is Crucial To Promoting A Sustainable Construction Industry In Adama Town. The Objectives Of This Study Involve Investigating The Underlying Reasons For Cost Escalation In Commercial Building Projects In Adama Town, Assessing The Extent Of Their Impact On The Buildings, And Creating A Model To Predict And Manage Such Escalations. Through A Detailed Literature Review, 29 Causes Of Cost Escalation Were Identified. The Current Study Adopted A Fuzzy Triangular Function To Identify The Impact Level Of The Identified Causes Influencing Cost Escalation From The Contractors?�?, Consultants?�?, And Owners?�? Views By Using Questionnaires. This Study Utilized Descriptive And Inferential Research Methods For Data Analysis. The Results Are In Line With Many Previous Studies In That The Problem Of Cost Escalation Is A Phenomenon In The Construction Of Commercial Building Projects. The Top Ten Serious Reasons For Cost Escalation In Adama Town Commercial Building Projects Are National Political Instability, Resource Supply Shortage, Inaccurate Estimating, Inflation, Market Trend, Length Of Time To Complete The Project, Suspension, And Strike Of Work, Improper Planning, Transportation Cost, And Exchange Rate Fluctuation. Furthermore, The Study Presents Models For Predicting The Percentages Of Cost Escalation For Commercial Building Projects In The Adama Town. The Developed Models Are Based On The Linear Regression Analysis Method And A Statistical Fuzzy Approach. The Top 10 Causes Of Cost Escalation Have Been Incorporated Into The Models As Independent Variables.The Validity Of The Developed Models Has Been Checked To Show The Prediction Accuracy Of The Developed Models, And It Has Been Noted That The Linear Regression-Based Models Can Accurately Assess The Expected Cost Escalation Of Any Future Commercial Building Projects In Adama Town At A Level Of Confidence Of 56.37 Percent, While Statistical Fuzzy-Based Models Can Predict The Cost Escalation Of Commercial Building Projects In Adama Town At A Level Of Confidence Of 53.67 Percent. Therefore, The Study Suggested Using Linear Regression-Based Models Rather Than Statistical Fuzzy-Based Models In Predicting The Cost Escalation Of Commercial Building Projects In The Adama Town. However The Study May Have Limitations Due To Respondents' Lack Of Knowledge, But Future Research Can Address This By Using Larger Samples And Better Training. The Developed Models Offer A Promising Starting Point For Better Cost Management In The Construction Industry In Adama Townand Beyond