Natural Forest Change Detection Using Geospatial Technologies Case Of Mari Mansa District, Dawro Zone South Ethiopia

Abstract

Currently, natural forest cover decline problems due to anthropogenic activities and natural factors are very common. Hence, the increasing population wants to fulfill their demand by converting the natural forest ecosystem into different types of land use. This resulting loss of biodiversity and climate change. Thus, this study was aimed at identifying causing factors for natural forest change and examining the spatio temporal change of natural forest and other land use dynamics for the last 20 years (2000-2020) by using change analysis in ArcGIS 10.8 and ERDAS 2014. Furthermore, future prediction for 2030 by using CA-Markovi in Terrset software was carried out to suggest the change of forest for the future. From the community the factors like, agricultural land expansion, charcoal making, fuel wood , timber production and overgrazing were identified as causes of spatiotemporal natural forest cover dynamics of the study area. Three Landsat images, 2000 ETM, 2010 ETM, and 2020 OLI-TIRS were used for the study. Four major land uses namely; natural forest, farmland, plantation, and settlement were clearly identified for the study from those satellite images. Therefore, the result of change detection of classified land use reveals that, in the entire study period, farmland increased by 2.5% between the years 2000-2010, and also show an increment by 12% between the years 2010-2020. Similarly, Settlement land, increased by 8% during the first ten years (2000-2010). Furthermore, it shows the increment in the second ten years (2010-2020) by 6.29%. Moreover, plantations show an increment of 0.4% during the first ten years and declined by 0.33% in the second ten years. On the other hand, natural forest land, declined by 12% between the periods 200 -2010. In addition, it shows decrement by 14% during 2010-2020. The prediction for 2030 indicates that natural forest declined by 4.7% and plantation was declined by 2.5% between 2020 and the predicted year. On the other hand, farmland will expand by 3.55% while settlement increasing by 3.63 % between 2020 and the predicted year. So, to alleviate the fast natural forest cover dynamics of the study area, concern bodies work together to conserve and protect the natural forest of the study area.